Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 10.528132 12.071089 13.734857 15.658940 17.819309 20.166574 22.906374
2025-07-13 8.412584 10.533398 12.998701 16.062442 19.752929 24.039393 29.378267
2025-07-20 7.314293 9.690819 12.588653 16.356224 21.096131 26.830151 34.256744
2025-07-27 6.318415 8.815991 11.996764 16.303684 21.935989 28.998507 38.463716
2025-08-03 5.502582 8.038519 11.394426 16.102748 22.469848 30.703495 42.064172
2025-08-10 4.910458 7.481549 11.004883 16.109166 23.222048 32.675374 46.058470
2025-08-17 4.466796 7.074039 10.762973 16.265139 24.142861 34.872599 50.414312
2025-08-24 4.035078 6.632646 10.422102 16.232920 24.767934 36.663498 54.265785
2025-08-31 3.635150 6.194117 10.038789 16.092377 25.202358 38.177996 57.767414
2025-09-07 3.346142 5.896327 9.834048 16.187493 25.964006 40.167719 62.005344
2025-09-14 3.176731 5.771774 9.879496 16.655017 27.291481 43.020524 67.598246
2025-09-21 2.888785 5.421795 9.537875 16.486288 27.624329 44.401049 71.059359
2025-09-28 2.499609 4.866327 8.827113 15.688451 26.944677 44.247353 72.253031
2025-10-05 2.371642 4.757298 8.846482 16.079763 28.169154 47.056915 78.080424
2025-10-12 2.240141 4.627443 8.816412 16.378418 29.247258 49.670381 83.692668
2025-10-19 2.063917 4.396604 8.590971 16.324207 29.731882 51.355900 87.903642
2025-10-26 1.883400 4.138955 8.295749 16.123604 29.949927 52.609102 91.458828
2025-11-02 1.749391 3.958903 8.126018 16.129833 30.513162 54.436996 96.000221
2025-11-09 1.646964 3.832165 8.044290 16.286053 31.338074 56.722082 101.366206
2025-11-16 1.529787 3.663029 7.868152 16.253773 31.822331 58.447532 105.858818
2025-11-23 1.410344 3.476796 7.643621 16.113077 32.098501 59.821456 109.800654
2025-11-30 1.327001 3.360578 7.547574 16.208299 32.802401 61.949157 115.086668
2025-12-07 1.288088 3.339787 7.641673 16.676359 34.213700 65.356857 122.683426